Rhodium

Price Trends

The average nominal price of rhodium over the last 20 years is approximately $2,200/oz. Rhodium has seen extraordinary price movements over the last two years, climbing from below $3,000 in January 2019 to a new record of $17,000 at the end of December 2020. The market saw extreme volatility during 2020: in March, rhodium lost nearly two-thirds of its value, collapsing from a (then record) high of $13,800 to a low of $5,500 over a period of less than two weeks. However, as auto production began to recover from Covid related disruption, rhodium embarked on another steep climb in August, surpassing its March peak by late September, and surging above $15,000 in November after Anglo American Platinum announced a new closure at its converter plant (ACP). Although the ACP resumed operations in early December, rhodium continued to surge higher, reaching $17,000 on 31st December 2020.

Historically, rhodium trading volumes can vary significantly with periods of low volume and surges in between. Rhodium prices are expected to range between US$ 13000/oz to US$ 21000/oz at least until the end of 2021. Assuming that rhodium buyers decide to increase storage reserves for hedging against future deficit and price growth during Q1 2021, we can conclude that the current rhodium price around US$ 21000/oz includes a speculative nature. The level of technical support at US$ 13000/oz on the one-year graph of rhodium price below confirms it. In July 2021, the rhodium price had a big drop to the level US$ 18400/oz which may be the beginning of a much deeper correction to US$ 13000/oz. However, it is not excluded, that a stabilization in the global economy in 2021 will allow prices to gain a foothold at the level US$ 15000.

Forecast:

Amid the COVID-19 crisis, the global market for Rhodium evaluated at US$ 2 Billion in the 2020 by Research and Markets, is projected to reach a revised size of US$ 2.8 Billion by 2027, growing at a CAGR of 5.3% over the analysis period 2020-2027. The automobile industry is projected to record a 5.7% CAGR and reach US$1.5 Billion by the end of the analysis period.

The Rhodium market in the U.S. was estimated at US$ 532.4 Million in the year 2020. China, the world's second largest economy, is forecast to reach a projected market size of US$ 615.5 Million by the year 2027 trailing a CAGR of 8.7% over the analysis period 2020 to 2027. Among the other noteworthy geographic markets are Japan and Canada, each forecast to grow at 2.9% and 4.3% respectively over the 2020-2027 period. Within Europe, Germany is forecast to grow at approximately 3.8% CAGR.[12]

In the global Refinery segment, USA, Canada, Japan, China and Europe will drive the 4.5% CAGR estimated for this segment. These regional markets accounting for a combined market size of US$ 412.8 Million in the year 2020 will reach a projected size of US$ 562.3 Million by the close of the analysis period. China will remain among the fastest growing in this cluster of regional markets. Led by countries such as Australia, India, and South Korea, the market in Asia-Pacific is forecast to reach US$ 387.8 Million by the year 2027, while Latin America will expand at a 5.2% CAGR through the analysis period.